Like all previous years, this year probably isn’t any different, and it won’t be the break out year for Linux on the Desktop.
But… (there’s always a but).
Something interesting happened over the last year. People I never expected to be Linux users have installed Ubuntu. My sister in law and nephew both count in this list. At some level “regular folks” have now come to Linux. I have no idea if this is a trend or not, but I find it interesting regardless.
It's always more complicated 
My dad uses Linux now too. He uses it for doing all his online stuff: email, internet, youtube, miro, etc. He likes it a lot so far. He never used Linux before just a few weeks ago.
I think that a lot of “regular folks” don’t like the big change that Vista and Office 2007 is. I think the best hope for this year is that people realize that there are operating systems other than Windows and Mac. I think once people actually know there is a choice, more will try it.
Steps in the right direction are getting people to use firefox and openoffice and the like. Then, using Linux is the same as using Windows, expect Linux is likely faster and has less problems.
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As far as desktops go, Windows has been my OS of choice – but I’ve given Gentoo a shot several times. With advent of Compiz Fusion and I think the effort being put forth by the Ubuntu folks, the viability of Linux as a desktop system for non-technical users is certainly growing. For me, one of the apps that I need, regardless of platform is Photoshop, and Wine/Crossover Office support has always been sub-par (also note that I’m not much a fan of the Gimp). Just yesterday, however, on the Google blog, they mentioned their investment in Codeweavers to help bring Photoshop emulation up to date (not quite up to date, but CS2 is certainly an improvement over v7). Check out the post here: http://google-opensource.blogspot.com/2008/02/google-sponsors-wine-improvements.html
Anyway, I think you might be right – this might be the year. If not for the general public, probably for me at least!
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